IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.1	#301
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	59.6	#348
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.7	#280

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.4	#301

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.9%	7.6%	2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	14.8	15.6

.500 or above	29.2%	65.9%	28.7%
.500 or above in Conference	39.5%	64.9%	39.2%
Conference Champion	3.1%	6.1%	3.0%
Last Place in Conference	13.0%	3.1%	13.1%

First Four	1.4%	1.5%	1.4%
First Round	2.3%	7.5%	2.2%
Second Round	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 8
Quad 4	10 - 9	12 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	30	@ Tennessee	L	56-79	1%
Nov 09, 2019	306	@ The Citadel	L	75-78	40%
Nov 13, 2019	91	@ Wake Forest	L	59-75	7%
Dec 03, 2019	276	@ Charlotte	L	60-65	34%
Dec 07, 2019	215	@ Western Carolina	L	67-75	24%
Dec 11, 2019	323	@ South Carolina St.	L	68-69	47%
Dec 14, 2019	258	Tennessee Martin	W	71-70	51%
Dec 17, 2019	336	Stetson	W	73-66	73%
Dec 21, 2019	235	Chattanooga	L	66-67	47%
Jan 02, 2020	319	@ Presbyterian	L	67-68	46%
Jan 08, 2020	302	Campbell	W	66-63	60%
Jan 11, 2020	194	@ Charleston Southern	L	63-72	22%
Jan 16, 2020	308	High Point	W	63-60	62%
Jan 18, 2020	245	Hampton	L	71-72	48%
Jan 20, 2020	260	@ Longwood	L	64-70	31%
Jan 23, 2020	134	Radford	L	61-68	29%
Jan 25, 2020	340	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	69-67	55%
Jan 30, 2020	176	Gardner-Webb	L	65-69	37%
Feb 01, 2020	218	@ Winthrop	L	68-76	26%
Feb 06, 2020	340	South Carolina Upstate	W	72-64	74%
Feb 10, 2020	245	@ Hampton	L	69-75	30%
Feb 13, 2020	260	Longwood	W	68-67	51%
Feb 15, 2020	194	Charleston Southern	L	66-69	41%
Feb 20, 2020	134	@ Radford	L	58-71	15%
Feb 22, 2020	319	Presbyterian	W	70-65	65%
Feb 27, 2020	308	@ High Point	L	60-63	42%
Feb 29, 2020	302	@ Campbell	L	63-66	40%
Projected Record						11 - 16	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big South Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1		3.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.1	1.8	1.0	0.3	0.0				4.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.6	2.2	2.5	1.1	0.3	0.0					6.7	3rd
4th									0.1	0.9	3.0	3.3	1.3	0.1	0.0						8.7	4th
5th								0.1	1.0	3.7	3.9	1.3	0.2	0.0							10.3	5th
6th							0.1	1.4	4.6	4.3	1.2	0.1	0.0								11.8	6th
7th						0.1	1.4	4.8	4.5	1.3	0.1										12.3	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	1.8	4.7	4.4	1.4	0.1											12.5	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	2.1	4.4	3.7	1.1	0.1												11.7	9th
10th		0.0	0.6	2.4	3.3	2.6	0.8	0.1	0.0												9.8	10th
11th	0.3	1.2	2.2	2.6	1.4	0.4	0.0														8.2	11th

Total	0.3	1.3	2.8	5.3	7.1	9.3	10.7	11.9	11.7	10.4	8.9	7.3	5.2	3.6	2.3	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.1			Total

Big South Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	94.7%	0.5		0.4	0.1	0.0
15-3	70.4%	0.8		0.5	0.2	0.0
14-4	41.4%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0
13-5	13.3%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.5%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.1%	3.1		1.6	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		40.0%	40.0%		12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0
17-1	0.2%		43.2%	43.2%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
16-2	0.5%		29.9%	29.9%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
15-3	1.2%		21.0%	21.0%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.9
14-4	2.3%		20.2%	20.2%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	1.8
13-5	3.6%		11.5%	11.5%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	3.1
12-6	5.2%		7.1%	7.1%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	4.8
11-7	7.3%		6.0%	6.0%		15.9																0.0	0.4	6.9
10-8	8.9%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																0.0	0.3	8.7
9-9	10.4%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																	0.2	10.1
8-10	11.7%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	11.6
7-11	11.9%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	11.9
6-12	10.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.7
5-13	9.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.3
4-14	7.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
3-15	5.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.3
2-16	2.8%																							2.8
1-17	1.3%																							1.3
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		2.9%	2.9%	0.0%	15.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	2.1	97.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%